Swiss Watch Exports Jumped 11.2% in June — But the Half-Year Tells a Quieter Story

Meta description: June exports hit CHF 2.4 billion, up 11.2%. The first half was flat. Both things are true, and the gap between them is the real story.

The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry published its June figures on July 21, and the headline number was the strongest the industry has seen in a while: exports up 11.2% year over year, to nearly 2.4 billion Swiss francs. It was the second consecutive month of meaningful recovery after two years of decline across 2024 and 2025.

Then you look at the six-month total and the picture flattens right out. Cumulative exports for the first half of 2026 came to CHF 12.8 billion — down 0.7% against the same period last year.

Both figures are accurate. Understanding why they point in different directions is more useful than either one alone.

The year has been anything but smooth

The first quarter came in barely better than flat, up 1.4%. April then fell off a cliff, down 16.6% to CHF 2.1 billion. May managed a slight rebound at +0.4%. June delivered the 11.2% jump.

April's collapse was almost entirely an artifact of comparison. In April 2025, exporters rushed enormous volumes of stock into the United States ahead of the tariffs the administration had just announced — U.S.-bound shipments spiked roughly 150% that month. Measured against that spike, April 2026 shipments to the U.S. fell 56.4%. Measured against April 2024, a more honest baseline, they were actually up 8.9%.

That distortion works its way through the whole first-half number. Swiss exports to the U.S. are down 14.8% across the six months, but the FH itself flagged the very high basis for comparison. The demand picture underneath is considerably healthier than the percentage suggests.

Where the growth came from in June

The United States remains the single largest market for Swiss watches, at CHF 349 million in June, up 12.7%.

Second place went to France, which is where the numbers get strange. French exports were up 103.5% to CHF 250 million, now representing roughly a tenth of total Swiss watch exports. The FH itself noted that results in France are broadly unrepresentative of actual demand in that market — this is logistics and warehousing routing, not French consumers suddenly doubling their watch buying.

Behind those two: the U.K. at CHF 175 million (+12.2%), Japan at CHF 169 million (+8.8%), Hong Kong at CHF 158 million (+6.9%) and Singapore at CHF 154 million (+6.7%). Those six markets together accounted for CHF 1.255 billion, about 52.5% of June's total.

The declines are worth as much attention as the gains. China fell 16.5% and did not appear among the top six markets at all. Germany was down 10.6%, Italy down 21.4%. China's weakness has been the persistent drag on the industry for two years now and shows no sign of resolving.

Elsewhere, the FH pointed to strong growth in faster-developing markets, specifically naming Mexico and India — worth watching over the next few years as the industry looks for something to replace Chinese demand.

The price-segment split is the interesting part

Volume grew across the half-year even as value slipped. Over 7 million watches shipped abroad in the first six months, an increase of 162,000 units, or 2.3%.

That growth was driven overwhelmingly by mechanical watches with an export price under CHF 500 — up 23.8%. Meanwhile the CHF 500–3,000 band, which carries a lot of the industry's mid-tier volume, declined 5.7% over the half.

June's segment breakdown showed the same shape: under CHF 200 up 9.9%, CHF 200–500 up a striking 54.1%, CHF 500–3,000 down 4.7%, and above CHF 3,000 up 14.2%.

That is a barbell. Entry-level mechanical and genuine high-end both growing; the middle getting squeezed from both sides. It is the same pattern the pre-owned market has been showing, and it is the pattern anyone selling watches should be reading most closely.

Materials are telling on themselves

One more line from the half-year data that is easy to skip past: watches in precious metals fell 6.5% in value, while bimetallic models rose 20.0%. In June alone, bimetallic exports surged 42.1% to CHF 453 million, against a 2.9% gain for precious metals and 5% for steel. Other metals grew 14.4%; steel fell back over the half.

The FH attributes this shift mainly to materials pricing. With gold where it is, a two-tone configuration delivers a meaningful portion of the visual proposition at a substantially lower input cost — and both brands and buyers are responding. If you have wondered why two-tone has quietly stopped being a punchline, that is a large part of the answer.

What the industry is saying about the rest of the year

The FH's own forecast is for 2026 as a whole to land roughly level with 2025. Not a recovery year, not a decline year — stable.

The caveats attached to that forecast are worth quoting the substance of: the federation flagged that uncertainty remains particularly high both in the Middle East and around future U.S. tariff policy toward Switzerland. Given that the tariff regime changed again on July 24, that caution reads as well-placed.

Two other data points support the stabilizing read. Richemont reported growth of roughly 8% in its Specialist Watchmakers division and about 20% overall, though that total was carried heavily by jewellery. Swatch Group reported sales up 8.5% at constant rates. Three separate sources pointing the same direction is more persuasive than any one of them.

The takeaway

June was a genuinely good month, and two consecutive months of growth after eight quarters of contraction is not nothing. But a single month does not reverse a trend, the year-to-date figure is still marginally negative, and the strongest growth is concentrated at the two ends of the price ladder rather than the middle where most of the market actually lives.

The honest summary: the bleeding has stopped. Whether that becomes a recovery depends substantially on China, and on whether the U.S. tariff picture stays put long enough for anyone to plan around it.